IAIC Market Update - May 3, 2021

(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)

What happened last week?

The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Canada’s S&P/TSX indices reached all-time record highs for the first part of the week before falling back on Friday. (Source)

• Solid corporate earnings have been turned in for the latest quarter.
• President Biden continued to advance his economic recovery plan with several trillion dollars of spending. The bills introduced include the $1.8 Trillion American Families Plan (education, child-care and social supports), the $2.3 Trillion American Jobs (infrastructure) and the approved $1.9 Trillion American Rescue Plan (pandemic relief and stimulus).
• U.S. and Canadian economic expansion/recovery is occurring more quickly than first anticipated.
• Canadian retail sales are rebounding more quickly than expected. As an example, Shopify which is a major component of the TSX, reported sales much higher (about double) and profits (almost triple) ahead of expectations.
• The Federal Reserve continues to support economic recovery despite a rise in the rate of inflation which could eventually cause interest rate increases. The Bank of Canada made a similarly toned announcement nearly two weeks ago.
• Pandemic case numbers are again rising in many parts of the world with the threat of renewed lockdowns and restrictions loom. India has had more than 400,000 cases daily while they experience shortages of critical supplies like oxygen.
  

What’s ahead for this week?

• In Canada, March’s merchandise trade balance is the sole major expected economic announcement.
• In the U.S., Purchasing Managers Indices from Markit and PMI for April, March’s construction spending, goods and services trade index and factory orders data are all scheduled for release.
• Globally, Eurozone manufacturing PMI is on the calendar, as well as German retail sales, industrial production and factory orders. Chinese markets will be closed at the beginning of the week before they announce their April trade surplus. Also, the Bank of England monetary policy announcement and report on Wednesday.