IAIC Market Update - March 14, 2022

(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)

What happened last week?

• The U.S. and U.K. both introduced a ban on the importation of Russian oil with the U.S. also banning Russian natural gas. Immediately after President Biden’s announcement regarding Russian oil, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped 8% before settling back down. Despite the price spike and volatility, the price of oil fell compared to last week’s close. (Source)
• On Thursday, the latest U.S. inflation numbers were released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% in February and 7.9% over the past 12 months (before seasonal adjustment). The two most significant contributors to the highest rate of American inflation in the past 40 years were Food (7.9%), and Energy (25.6%). Excluding Food and Energy, the All-Items index, prices rose 6.4%, which is the largest 12 month change for this category of goods and services since August 1982. (Source)
• The European Central Bank met in Frankfurt and announced their latest policy to address Continental consumer inflation and, secondarily the crisis in Ukraine. Bond buying will end this summer, which will then allow for interest rate increases to trim inflation. The war in Ukraine is expected to contribute to additional inflation and lower economic growth. (Source) 
• On Friday Canadian employment data was released. During the month of February 337,000 jobs were created and at month’s end the unemployment rate dropped 1.0% to 5.5%. The unemployment rate is lower than February 2020 and the total number of jobs exceeds the level of two years ago. (Source) 
  
  

What’s ahead for this week?

• In Canada, January’s retail sales, construction investment, manufacturing sales and new orders, wholesale trade and new vehicle sales, February’s housing-starts and existing home sales will be announced. The Consumer Price Index for February will also be released.
• In the U.S., the Producer Price Index, retail sales, import prices, housing-starts, existing home sales, industrial production and capacity utilization are scheduled. On Wednesday at 2 pm Eastern the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, will announce the latest monetary policy.
• Globally, Chinese industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment, Eurozone trade deficit, labour costs, industrial production and CPI will be released. Sanctions against Russia that are designed to punish Russians and pressure Putin to withdraw from Ukraine will require time to be effective.