IAIC Market Update - January 18, 2021
Last Week in the Markets: January 11th - 15th, 2021
(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)
What happened last week?
- The coronavirus and political turmoil in the United States had a strong hold on equity markets last week. COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations have not improved and concerns that impeachment proceedings would slow the legislative agenda for the incoming U.S. administration hurt most indices, except for the S&P500.
- In its quarterly “Business Outlook Survey” released on Monday, the Bank of Canada indicated that businesses were poised to move positively forward prior to the latest round of lockdowns. Surveys were conducted during the second half of November and into early December with more than half of firms expecting revenue, staff, and investments to increase in 2021. Similar sentiments are held in the U.S. where many businesses expect late 2021 and 2022 to be the timing of a resurgence of economic activity; contingent on the vaccine being widely administered.
- Surviving the winter and the summer is the most pressing priority for many businesses. Firms on both sides of the border are less optimistic than they have been and have been moving the timing of economic recovery further into the future. (Source1, Source2, Source3)
- Statistics Canada data supports this pessimism. Its recently released employment numbers show employment fell by 63,000 in December, the first decline since April. Unemployment remained almost unchanged since November at 8.6%. Labour Force Participation fell for the second consecutive month. (Source)
What’s ahead for this week?
- In Canada, the Bank of Canada will release an interest rate decision on Wednesday. There is little, if any, room to move rates to spur economic activity. December’s Consumer Price Index along with November’s retail sales will provide insights into our recovery.
- In the U.S., the data scheduled for release revolves around housing with December’s building permits, housing starts and existing home sales on the calendar. The biggest event will be the inauguration of Joe Biden on January 20th and his immediate plans for stimulus, COVID-19 measures and a longer-term infrastructure plan.
The latest details from the Canadian Federal Government on stimulus and economic assistance are available here.
The latest details of the current Canada’s Covid-19 Economic Response Plan are available
here.
For more information contact:
Independent Accountants’ Investment Counsel Inc.
135 Main St. E. Listowel, ON
Phone: 519-291-2817 or TF: 1-877-291-3040
icpmss@iaic.ca
This report is produced by Independent Accountants' Investment Counsel Inc (“IAIC”) in conjunction with ARG Inc. All graph and chart statistical data contained in this report has been supplied by ARG Inc. The views and opinions expressed in this report are based on market statistics. No guarantee of outcome is implied and opinions may change without notice. Investors should not base any of their investment decisions solely on this report nor should any opinions expressed within this report be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Although the information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that IAIC believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and as such, the information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions, estimates and other information included in this report constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice.
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