IAIC Market Update - February 27, 2023

(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)

What happened last week?

• Following the holiday observances in Canada and the U.S. on Monday, it was an eventful week for most investors. Equities continued to lose value on predictions of increased tightening by central banks.
• The year-over-year rate of Canadian consumer inflation lowered to 5.9% in January, a decline from 6.3% in December. In January the cost of mortgage interest, gasoline and food rose, while cellular services and passenger vehicles fell. During the month of January 2023 prices rose 0.5% compared with an increase of 0.9% in January 2022. (Source) 
• Another important measure of inflation, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is a measure of consumer spending, rose 5.4% on a year-over-year basis as of the end of January. This is a slight increase from December’s annualized increase of 5.3% and ends three consecutive months of decline for this measure that began in October. On a monthly basis prices were up 0.6% in January, which is higher than December’s increase of 0.2%. (Source)
• After the PCE was released North American equity indexes opened below Thursday’s close. Only the TSX was able to climb back into positive territory for the day. Friday’s reversal allowed the TSX to limit its losses for the week to approximately half the percentages of the American indexes. The Dow completed its fourth consecutive week of losses, and the S&P 500 delivered its poorest result of 2023.
  
  

What’s ahead for this week?

• In Canada, fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be reported along with building permits, labour productivity and Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for manufacturing.
• In the U.S., durable goods orders, goods trade balance, retail, and wholesale inventories, pending home sales, house price index, mortgage market index, and construction spending will all be released.
• Globally, in the Eurozone consumer confidence and inflation expectation, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be reported. Japan will release its core CPI, retail sales, construction orders, and housing starts.