IAIC Market Update - January 18, 2022

(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)

What happened last week?

• The continued rise in the price of oil resulted in both the TSX and the Canadian dollar to increase in value last week. Oil has risen by more than 11% since the beginning of 2021. Energy is the second largest sector on the TSX and gains in crude prices are generally reflected in the overall index. Increasing oil prices increases the demand for Canadian dollars, which strengthens our currency against the U.S. dollar.
• The big economic news from last week was the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. In the U.S., Year-over-Year prices have risen 7.0%; the highest inflation reading since 1982. Energy (fuel, oil, natural gas) and used vehicle prices have risen the most at 29.3% and 37.3%, respectively. Groceries nearly matched the overall rate after rising 6.5% since last December. Removing energy and food, two categories that can deliver volatile price changes, inflation for Goods has risen nearly 11%, which is also the largest increase since 1982. Services (less energy services) have risen a modest 3.7%, still far above the goal of the 2% average total inflation. (Source)
• The U.S. Federal Reserve along with the Bank of Canada is expected to deliver interest rate increases. The markets are pricing-in these increases for 2022. With U.S. unemployment falling below 4% and Canadian employment recovered to pre-pandemic levels there is little reason to actively support economic recovery while inflation exceeds desired levels. (Source)
  
  

What’s ahead for this week?

• In Canada, November’s manufacturing sales and new orders, new vehicle sales and retail sales, and December’s existing home sales, housing-starts, and new housing price index are scheduled for release. Of note, the latest consumer inflation numbers will be announced on Wednesday morning.
• In the U.S., markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr Day. Later in the week, December housing prices will be released as the quarterly corporate earnings season gathers momentum with major firms like Bank of America, Charles Schwab, State Street, PNC, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bancorp and Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth, Procter & Gamble, Union Pacific, American Airlines, CSX, and Netflix announcing results.
• Globally, Japan’s industrial production, machine orders, trade balance and CPI, Germany’s CPI, and Eurozone CPI and consumer confidence will be released.