IAIC Market Update - February 6, 2023

(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)

What happened last week?

• The NASDAQ moved upward for the fifth consecutive week, the S&P 500 gained 1½%, and the TSX rose almost the same amount as the Dow lost. According to FACTSET half the S&P 500 companies have reported their most recent quarterly earnings, and 70% have exceeded earnings expectations, which is below the 5-year average or 77%. (Source) 
• Major news came from the U.S. Federal Reserve on February 1st. “The Fed” echoed previous sentiment from the Bank of Canada by raising its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, by 25 basis points (¼ percent) to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Over the same period the Bank of Canada has raised its policy interest rate by the same amount. This was the smallest increase since March 2022, when the Fed began increasing interest rates to combat inflation. Between then and now, the Fed has delivered increases of 50 basis points twice, and 75 basis points four times. (Source1, Source2) 
• The return to a smaller increase suggests that inflation may have begun to respond to these increases, and the end of rate increases may be approaching. The difference in wording in the accompanying press release, that “the Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy” versus December’s “the Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate” supports the smaller rate increase. (Source1, Source2, Source3) 
• Earlier in the week Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers were released by StatsCan that showed our economy edged up 0.1% in November. Gains by services industries were mostly offset by decline in goods production. The early results for December show that GDP was unchanged. (Source) 
  

What’s ahead for this week?

• In Canada, December’s imports, exports, and trade balance will be released on Tuesday, and employment data (full and part-time employment, participation, and unemployment) will be reported on Friday.
• In the U.S., a quieter week delivers trade balance, consumer credit, wholesale trade, and the federal government’s budget balance. 
• Globally, in the Eurozone, retail sales, construction data, and German industrial production are the most important anticipated reports. In Asia, China’s latest CPI and Japan’s household spending are scheduled.