IAIC Market Update - December 6, 2021

(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)

What happened last week?

• It was an extremely difficult week for markets with equity indices in Canada, the U.S. and globally falling along with the Canadian dollar, gold and oil. 
• Positive news on the jobs front suggests that the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve may act more quickly to raise interest rates to reign-in inflation. Fears of an economic slowdown associated with higher rates was bolstered by uncertainty of the Omicron variant, which has caused several countries to enact restrictions. 
• The latest jobs data was released with 154,000 jobs added in Canada. The unemployment rate fell again by 0.7% to 6.0%. Employment exceeds the February 2020 level by 186,000 jobs and the unemployment is just 0.3% below its level at that time. Total hours worked increased by 0.7% and have returned to pre-pandemic levels. The ending of support programs in Canada was seen as a contributor as more individuals sought to move to earned income. More than 80% of women aged 25 to 54 were employed in November, which is the highest level since the data was first collected in 1976, with growth spread across multiple industries. By comparison 87% of men of the same age are employed, exceeding February levels by 0.5%. (Source1, Source2, Source3)
• In the U.S., 210,000 new jobs were added in November and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4% to 4.2%. “Notable job gains occurred in professional and business service, transportation and warehousing, construction and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month” according to the report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  
  

What’s ahead for this week?

• In Canada, merchandise trade balance and third quarter capacity utilization will be announced. The most important update of the week will be the latest release of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy.
• In the U.S., third quarter productivity, October’s goods and services trade deficit and consumer credit, and November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released.
• Globally, China’s trade surplus, CPI and producer inflation, Germany’s factory orders and CPI, industrial production will be announced along with Eurozone real Gross Domestic Product.