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IAIC Market Update - March 27, 2023

Mar 27, 2023

Last Week in the Markets: March 20th – 24th, 2023

Market Charts

(source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/markets, MSCI https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search and ARG Inc. analysis)


What happened last week?

  • North American equity indexes delivered positive, overall returns last week, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ achieved this feat for the second consecutive week. Financial firms, primarily banks, continue to lead the news cycle with Credit Suisse, Deutsch Bank and others revealing vulnerabilities. The TSX Financials sector is down about 11% since its most recent peak in mid-February. 
  • Rising interest rates and insufficient oversight have led to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. With rates rising for the past year, a few banks had the cash demands of paying higher short-term rates collide with the long-term, low interest their investments are earning. Thankfully the Canadian financial services sector is much more heavily regulated than American and European institutions.
  • The crisis for some banks has affected the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to fight inflation. Typically, a central bank will slow demand in the economy by reducing liquidity in the system by raising rates and reducing bond holdings. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark, federal funds, rate by ¼ point, which is a smaller increase than forecast just a few weeks ago. 
  • On Tuesday StatsCan released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February which showed an increase of 5.2% on a year-over-year basis. A month earlier, January’s annualized inflation was 5.9%. Although the inflation rate has fallen from its peak and continues to lower, it is due to steep monthly price increases one year ago that have adjusted the baseline upward. Groceries prices continue to drive overall inflation after posting a rise of 10.6% since February 2022.    

Sources: TSX Financials Sector,  Fed's inflation and bank crisis,  CBC explainer Canadian banks, Fed press conf, release and SEP, StatsCan

What’s ahead for this week?

  • In Canada, after last week’s consumer inflation release another significant economic release, January’s Gross Domestic Product, measuring the economy’s overall health will be reported.
  • In the U.S., the House Price Index, pending home sales, goods trade balance, retail inventories, real consumer spending, personal income and spending will be released. Fourth quarter GDP, GDP Price Index and GDP Sales, and the Fed’s primary inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and are scheduled toward the end of the week.
  • Globally, following the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, European news continues as Germany, France and Italy release their Consumer Price Index for their individual countries, and the entire Eurozone also reports aggregate CPI. Eurozone business climate, inflation expectations and employment are also due. 

For more information contact:
Independent Accountants’ Investment Counsel Inc. 
135 Main St. E. Listowel, ON
Phone: 519-291-2817 or TF: 1-877-291-3040
icpmss@iaic.ca

 

This report is produced by Independent Accountants' Investment Counsel Inc (“IAIC”) in conjunction with ARG Inc. All graph and chart statistical data contained in this report has been supplied by ARG Inc. The views and opinions expressed in this report are based on market statistics. No guarantee of outcome is implied and opinions may change without notice. Investors should not base any of their investment decisions solely on this report nor should any opinions expressed within this report be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Although the information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that IAIC believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and as such, the information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions, estimates and other information included in this report constitute our judgment as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice.


Please contact your IAIC representative if you have any questions regarding this report. ©Copyright 2023 Independent Accountants’ Investment Counsel Inc. All rights reserved.

17 Apr, 2024
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Fire extinguisher on wall
16 Apr, 2024
On April 5, 2024, an unprecedented fine was levied towards a corporation and its director for violation of the Occupational Health and Safety Act . The corporation was fined $600,000 and the director was fined $80,000, plus a 25% victim surcharge. These are highest fines levied both towards a corporation, and to an individual for a single charge in Canadian history, and is further evidence that governing bodies are serious about enforcing legislation to protect workers and prevent further fatalities and injuries. What can we learn from this? 1. Chemical handling protocols are critical for reducing risk in the workplace. In this case, diesel fuel and gasoline were unintentionally mixed, causing an increased flammable hazard. Ultimately, this mistake resulted in catastrophic explosions and fires that caused the death of 6 people and serious injury of another. 2. Directors are being held increasingly accountable for the workers under their care; specifically, for oversight of middle management/supervisors and ensuring hazards are identified and controlled. While consistent with their legislated duties under the Act, historically directors have not been the target of large fines and charges. Instead, the penalties were previously levied toward front line supervisors and staff. This reflects the growing understanding that senior directors have the most accountability for the workplace and workers, and that they have a duty to know what is happening in their organization. 3. Senior leaders need to have open communication and trust with their workforce to ensure candid and frequent flow of information. Leaders won’t know what is happening, and therefore cannot take action to address risk if the workforce is fearful or apprehensive about reporting their concerns. Consider who in your workplace provides this information and to whom. If you are a leader, what questions should you be asking and what to you need to know? Do you believe that staff are open and honest, without fear of repercussions when delivering bad news? Is there a clear and accessible process for reporting, tracking, and resolving issues? 4. Workplace culture is built from the top. Leaders are responsible for establishing systems and structures that support a culture that prioritizes worker safety. Blame-centered culture reinforces our natural instinct of self preservation over disclosure; silence and secrecy over candor and open communication. Also, actions mean more than words. Leaders need to ensure actions and directives echo policy statements, and vice versa. So, what can you do? Ensure that you have an environment where staff feel comfortable reporting issues, where supervisors and managers appreciate staff input and take action to address these concerns. Having little or no reported concerns is a red flag and is a prime indicator that staff do not understand or feel comfortable reporting issues. Ensure that staff are trained about the specific tasks and hazards in your workplace, not just general safety measures, and equip supervisors and managers with the tools and knowledge they need to be successful and manage the workers under their care. To read more about the incident, the Ministry of Labour, Labour, Immigration, Training and Skills Development has published a court bulletin: https://news.ontario.ca/mlitsd/en For any assistance or answers about how you can bolster your health and safety systems and due diligence, contact our resident safety expert Jennifer Goertzen, CRSP .
12 Apr, 2024
As we near the end of Tax Season, please note our office hours below:  Hours until April 29th Monday – Friday 8:30am – 5:30pm Thursday evenings 6:30pm – 8:00pm (closed from 5:30pm- 6:30pm) Saturdays 9:00am – 12:00pm Hours on April 30th 8:30am – 5:00pm Hours May 1st – May 3rd Closed Hours beginning May 6th Monday – Thursday 8:30am – 5:00pm Friday 8:30am – 4:30pm
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